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Sox vs Tigers: continued the pitching

so after the tigers took a 6-3 lead offensively in my head to head position battle between the sox and tigers i took some time off and eventually got around to the pitching. here it goes: i chose these 4 stats because they are the important ones to me in determing a pitchers effectiveness moreso than wins and strikeouts.... ERA, WHIP, OBA, and K/BB

i chose to follow each teams respective depth chart per their official websites with one exception... as im sure youll notice in just a second....  (by the way im sorry i was not able to post this in my usual non double spaced format, i had some technical difficulties)

#1SP       2007     ERA   WHIP    OBA     K/BB

Boston: Schilling 3.87   1.25 .    303      4.39

Detroit: Verlander 3.66  1.23 .    309       2.73

Schillings strikeouts to walk ratio and slightly lower OBA give this one to the sox. Verlanders era may be lower, but thats partially due to luck and the tigers defense given that he allows more people on base. BOSTON +1

#2SP      2007         ERA    WHIP  OBA    K/BB

Boston: Matsuzaka 4.40   1.32    .326    2.51

Detroit: Rogers        4.43   1.43    .331    1.44

Dice edges out the gambler... plus he will improve next year. his control hopefully earned him those corners he lives on with a couple of the umpires that were calling him tight last year. plus Rogers is a dinosaur BOSTON +1

#3SP     2007           ERA    WHIP OBA    K/BB

Boston: Wakefield    4.76   1.35  .325    1.72

Detroit: Bonderman 5.01   1.38  .326    3.02

Bonderman may strikeout out more hitters but when he gets hit, he gets hit. im tempted to give this matchup to Wakefield simply for having the agreement he does with the team... plus theres not a more positive guy to have on the team, but im giving this one a tie. it would be a different story if i was comparing wake to the devil rays, but if these guys match up the score could be 11-10, 1-0, 11-2 ... only the wind knows. TIE

#4SP       2007 ERA    WHIP   OBA   K/BB

Boston: Lester 4.57    1.46    .339    1.61

Detroit: Willis    5.17    1.60 .   369    1.68

Boston takes this one easy unless Dontrell decides to quit adding DUIs to his resume instead of strikeouts. both pitchers will improve but Lesters experience in the AL plus his need to EARN a spot in the rotation makes him the winner in 08. BOSTON+1

#5SP      2007         ERA    WHIP  OBA    K/BB

Boston: Buchholz   1.59    1.06    .219    5.60

Detroit: Robertson 4.76    1.47    .342    1.89

true theres a part of me that thinks that Buchholz is the next coming of Casey Fossum but clay takes this one easy even though he wont pitch another no hitter in 08 or keep his era under 3.5. his 180-200 strikeouts in 08 give the sox this one in a landslide in 08. Robertsons numbers give the sox the victory in 07... that or the fact that his goggles remind me of Gagne didnt give him a shot to begin with. BOSTON +1

WHOA THERE!!!!! you say.   wheres Beckett?!?!?! well, i knew the tigers couldnt match up at all to a rotation with him, so i thought since the sox have 6 starters id give them a fair shake at the other 5. guess what? sox took that 4-0-1... im giving the sox an additional +2 for Beckett's dominace... leaving this one at 6-0-1 currently. by the way heres the stats for Beckett if you want to argue my logic:

                         ERA    WHIP    OBA    K/BB

Beckett 2007 3.27     1.14    .286      4.85

the tigers have NO ONE that comes close.

6-0-1... thats unsurmountable but ill run through the bullpens for you anyways

CLOSER 2007        ERA  WHIP   OBA   K/BB

Boston: Papelbon 1.85    0.77   .219    5.60

Detroit: Jones         4.26    1.42   .331    1.43

im not even going here. BOSTON +1

PEN 2007                  ERA    WHIP   OBA    K/BB

Boston: Okajima      2.22     0.97    .255     3.71

Boston: Delcarmen 2.05     1.02    .270     2.41

Boston: Timlin          3.42     1.08    .290     2.21

Detroit: Rodney        4.26      1.32    .320    2.57

Detroit: Zumaya       4.28      1.19     .291    1.59

Detoit: Bazardo        2.28      1.01     .281     3.00

and thats detroits best and brightest hopes in the pen! the sox dominate in the 7th and 8th!   on the other hand some of these detroit guys have Hansen potential.. but that again... is just potential.     BOSTON +1

leaving the pitching at 8-0-1 and the over all head to head position matchup at a total of:

BOSTON 11 DETROIT 6

happy now? i am.

by the way for the OFFENSIVE matchup http://sawxheads.com/blog/101/4700  this should lead you there.

 

-elmedius
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January 4, 2008

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Comments

Nice blog El, and I know you put a good amount of work into it. I'm gonna see about adding ERA+ to it, but don't hold me to it for tonight (RL and all that). Nice bit of research. You stat heads here, at SoSH and elsewhere know more about numbers of the team. I'm more of a gut guy because frankly, math is a tough nut for me to crack. All of that said simply put...great job. It was put in such a way as to make a layman able to understand it.
7:12 PM
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adjusted_ERA%2B A good article that will explain ERA+. More to come.
7:36 PM
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A ton of people know this probably, but for those who don't: The modern era leader of ERA+ is Pedro Martinez. Take that for what it's worth. Here goes. Of the starters Elmedius compared, the Sox own 3 of the 4 ERA+ stats (Buchholz didn't have enough appearances I guess). Verlander was the only one who had a better ERA+, and an argument could be made that Schill was coming back from injury still so...enough on that. The bullpen differences were staggering...3 of 4 who had a 200 or better ERA+ were Red Sox. Bazardo was the only Tiger with one, and his was an even 200 (Compared to Paps 256!!!). Comparing the closer stats, Jones had a paltry 107. All of that just helps to say that Elmedius is right. The Sox pitching is MUCH better then the tigers, especially in the bullpen department. At least if last years numbers hold true or similar.
7:57 PM
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thanks for bringing up ERA+! its an awesome stat. id definitely reccomend checking out third's link if you dont know much about it.
4:41 PM
elmedius

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